Modelling the spread of disease and the success rate of immunisation is vital for disease control. This task looks at different ways of modelling the spread of disease, using: 1) a dice; 2) a pack of cards; and 3) a spreadsheet.

Overview of task

Modelling the spread of disease and the success rate of immunisation is vital for disease control. This task looks at different ways of modelling the spread of disease, using: 1) a dice; 2) a pack of cards; and 3) a spreadsheet.

Strand(s):

Probability, using spreadsheets and expectations

Prior knowledge

An appreciation of spreadsheets, probability and mathematical modelling.

Relevance to Core Maths qualifications

- AQA
- C&G
- Eduqas
- Pearson/ Edexcel
- OCR

Suggested approaches

The activity is suitable for group or paired work with plenty of opportunity for collaboration and discussion with the whole class on how the model works and what happens if you change a variable, e.g. the infection rate. It also enables students to see clearly the spread of disease using several different modelling approaches. The best way to work through the different models is: counter plague (counters and dice per group); 26-card epidemic (one pack of cards per group); spreadsheet model. Discuss findings at the end.

Resources/documentation

PowerPoint

Spreadsheet

Record sheet

www.motivate.maths.org/content/DiseaseDynamics/Activities/CounterPlague www.motivate.maths.org/content/DiseaseDynamics/Activities/26CardEpidemi http://motivate.maths.org/content/DiseaseDynamics/Activities/Modelling#model

Relevant digital technologies

Students will need access to spreadsheets.

Possible extensions

There are differentiated questions on the PowerPoint slide. Students could ask their own questions and explore with the spreadsheet simulation.

Acknowledgement

Developed by http://www.motivate.maths.org/